Showing posts with label Sustainability. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sustainability. Show all posts

Saturday, February 16, 2013

Solar Energy Technologies

These are notes from Renewable Energy Futures Study.
  • Introduction
    • US population uses about 4,000 TWh of electrical energy each year
    • about the amount of solar energy that falls on US every few hours
    • fraction of generation is small but rapidly growing 3,400 MW in 2011
    • generating technologies began in 1970s, 80s
    • solar deployment initially dominated by CSP(Concentrating Solar Power) until PV became more popular around 2005
  • Resource Availability Estimates
    • Solar energy contains both a direct and diffuse component
    • direct accounts for 60-80% of surface solar insolation and is needed for high efficiencies for solar technologies
    • CSP is more reliant on direct components than PV or passive heating
    • Solar resource greatest in southwestern united states but generally high in most parts of the united states except alaska and pacific northwest
    • i.e. Germany is world leader in PV but has less than 40% efficiency as systems in LA
  • Technology Characterization
    • Solar Photovoltaics
      • PV convert sunlight into electricity through excitation from ground state
      • several technologies deployed at gigawatt scale
      • Emerging tech
        • Copper indium gallium diselenide thin films
        • concentrating PV
        • organic PV cells
    • Concentrating Solar Power
      • CSP uses lenses or mirrors to focus sunlight onto receiver to heat fluid
      • Parabolic trough systems, first commercialized in 1984, 96% of global deployment
        • 1 axis track linear receiver to focus sunlight
        • Dish uses 2 axis tracking
    • Other Solar Technlogies
      • water heating, space heating, cooling, and lighting, displace end use electricity
  • Technologies included in RE Future Scenario Analysis
    • PV Markets
      • grid connected residential rooftop PV
      • grid-connected commercial rooftop PV
      • distributed utility scale PV
      • central utility scale PV
    • CSP technologies
      • trough systems no storage
      • trough with thermal energy storage
      • tower systems with thermal energy storage
  • Technology Cost and Performance
    • steady trend of improvement
    • RE technology costs RE-ETI (renewable electricity evolutionary technology improvement)
      • represents more complete implementation of renewables
    • RE-ITI (renewable electricity incremental technology improvement)
      • represents only a partial achievement of potential technologies
    • Solar costs refer to bottom up estimates of materials, manufacturing, installation
    • Solar prices refer to market price of PV
  • Solar Photovoltaics Cost and Performance
    • since 1980s, factory gate module prices have decreased
  • Engineering Analysis of Advancement Potential for Solar Photovoltaics
    • PV Prices will improve from increasing module efficiencies, manufacturing throughput, reducing wafer thickness
    • PV market dominated by multi crystalline and mono crystalline PV dominates about 85% of global market
      • thin film cadmium telluride represents a significant other portion
    • Balance of systems costs for solar photovoltaics
      • BOS includes cost of inverters, transformers, support structures, mounting hardware, electrical protection devices, wiring, monitoring equipment, shipping, land, installation labor, permitting, and fees $1-4 per watt
      • Hard BOS
        • increase module efficiency, reduce size of installation
        • developing racking systems to enhance energy production and integrate them into modules
        • create standardized package systems and supply chains
        • improve inverter price/performance
      • Soft BOS
        • reduce supply chain margins
        • create standardized practices
        • expand financing plans
  • Solar cost projections in the SunShot vision study
    • in 2011 the Department of Energy launched the SunShot Initiative
    • push solar energy to become competitive with retail tech
      • PV target to reach $1 per watt for utility scale systems, and 1.25 for commercial rooftop scale PV, and $1.50 for residential rooftop
      • CSP targeted to reach $3.60 for systems with 14 hour storage
    • RE futures modeling scenarios do not reach these price and performance targets
  • Resource Cost Curves
    • curves developed for rooftop PV, distributed PV, central utility PV, and CSP
      • derived using solar resource characteristics from NREL's National Solar Radiation Database and the National Land Cover Data
    • The following table describes the supply curves for PV
    • Rooftop PV has technical potential of 700 GW in US
    • Distributed Utility PV has about 2,000 GW
    • Technical potential of central utility PV about 80,000 GW
      • land availability not likely to limit PV deployment
  • Output Characteristics and Grid Service Possibilities
    • Solar Electricity consists of 2 distinct technologies with different generation characteristics
    • PV provides DC in the range from 100-200W, then converted into utility grade power with 60 Hz frequency
    • PV fluctuation in production varies, even more than wind generation
      • Depends on cloud variability, short time variations
      • CSP systems have much less short term variability due to thermal inertia of system
      • CSP with storage viable to improve power quality, voltage, frequency stability
    • Advantages
      • PV generation curve does match peak load which occurs during the day
      • PV reduces line losses due to distributed generation
  • Technology Options for Power System Services
    • Utilize inverter's power electronics
    • reactive power, voltage control, and low voltage ride through
  • Large Scale Production and Deployment Issues
    • Environmental and social impacts
      • land area required for PV and CSP is very large
      • PV is modular, can be sited virtually anywhere, CSP has more specified locations
    • Water Use
      • CSP consumes water through evaporation, PV requires only maintenance water
    • Life cycle Greenhouse Gases
      • life cycle greenhouse gas emissions insignificant in comparison to power generation
      • 45.5g carbon dioxide for PV, 19.0g carbon dioxide for CSP 
    • Other Impacts
      • CSP often use oil or salt heat transfer fluid, which is not risk free
      • glare from PV can cause risk to nearby persons
  • Manufacturing and Deployment Challenges
    • scale up capital is necessary
    • availability of raw materials shouldn't be an issue, byproducts of electrolytic copper refining can be used for PV, cadmium telluride
    • Indium is byproduct of zinc refining
    • Material for silicon PV virtually unlimited
    • High up front costs, low operating costs
    • Human resources needed for design, manufacture, installation, and maintanence
  • Conclusions
    • fraction of solar usage is currently small but growing rapidly
    • it faces mainly the issues of high upfront cost, and regulations especially for rooftop pv, local legislature can limit growth
    • large scale deployment may cause landscape change

Friday, February 8, 2013

Energy Water Nexus

These are notes from Energy Water Nexus.

  • Water: a new vulnerability in the energy system
    • Through looking at the world from space we think we have an abundance of water
    • less than 3% of water is fresh
      • 2.5% of fresh water frozen in glaciers
      • only .5% easily accessible in aquifers, lakes, rivers, or wetland
    • Freshwater is unevenly allocated
    • 60% of Earth's water controlled by
      • Brazil, Russia, China, Canada, Indonesia, USA, India, Columbia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo
      • Australia faces water scarcity
      • Developing nations also pose an issue
    • Potential inability to match water demands
    • Water is consumed in industry for high income countries
    • One billion lack access to fresh drinking water
  • Linkage between water and energy
    • energy is used to pump, move and treat water
    • water is often used for energy, from water mills to hydro dams
    • global population and economic growth continues, despite water shortage
  • A more water-constrained future
    • huge urbanization rates of Asia, Latin America, and Africa
      • energy and water security national level problems
    • Climate change due to global warming adds to water stress
    • approach to preserve present level of comfort while improving energy efficiency in developed nations
  • Water requirements in the energy sector
    • freshwater required for many steps of energy generation
      • extraction, production, refining, processing, transportation, storage and generation
      • North america consumes 1/4 of world's energy
  • Fuel Production
    • water consumption varies with energy utilization
    • developing nations often use biomass and solar in ways difficult to measure
    • Crude Oil
      • highest energy production rate
      • 1.058 m3 water needed per Gigajoule of energy from oil
      • oil accounts for 34% of current energy production
      • hope to decrease to 22% by 2050
      • Asia accounts for more than 40% of worlds water consumption due to oil 
    • Natural Gas
      • gas production due to double over the next 40 years
      • Water consumption due to gas is low
      • 0.109 mof water needed per GigaJoule
      • Horizontal drilling and other extraction techniques making gas more viable
      • water used is recoverable but contains contaminants
    • Coal
      • Energy from coal below oil but likely to rise
      • 0.164 mof water needed per GigaJoule
    • Uranium
      • Energy accounts for only 6% of energy production in world
      • 0.086 mof water needed per GigaJoule
    • Biomass
      • considered "fuel for the poor"
      • inefficient and highly polluting
      • wood, agro, municipal by products
  • Electricity Production
    • Thermoelectric Plants
      • all fuel types need cooling and process water
      • differentiated between once-through and recirculating systems
      • wet recirculating systems about 40% more expensive than once through
      • dry cooling is 3-4 times more expensive than wet
      • once-through loses 1%
      • recirculation, less than 1% drawn from source, lose 70-90% lost through evaporation
      • recirculating system consumes 10 times the amount of water
      • Subcritical and Supercritical types of Pulverized Coal plants
        • supercritical more efficient
        • subcritical older and more commonly used
      • Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle
        • turns coal into synthetic gas then uses that gas to heat water
      • Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
        • gas turbine generates electricity, waste heat used to make steam to generate more electricity
      • Natural Gas Combine cycle
        • majority of water used for cooling, lowest in comparison with other fossil fuel techniques
      • Nuclear Plants
        • have higher cooling tower, water consumption high
    • Carbon Capture and Storage
      • development of carbon capture and storage technologies used to meet climate change standards
      • reduces emissions by 80-85%
      • requires more water
    • Hydroelectric Power Plants
      • largest generator of renewable energy
      • water not really lost but reservoir creation can cause additional evaporation
        • significant for smaller power plants
    • Electricity from wind and solar
      • minor amounts for both PV and Wind power mainly for cleaning and maintenance
      • Water consumption to generate electricity may double in the next 40 years as we move to cleaner technologies

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

EPA Coal Plant Regulations

These are notes from EPA Emission Regulations.
  • Proposed emission rules for EPA spell gradual demise of coal power generation
    • set a standard within capabilities of gas fired plants but impossible for coal w/o carbon capture and storage technology
    • transitional exemption to make change gradual
    • makes coal more expensive
  • Natural Gas has recently had a boom
    • EPA wants to entrench current advantage of gas
  • Limiting coal is part of a larger scheme to remake energy industry
  • EPA picks fights with coal-state democrats
    • aggressive pushes to control emissions
    • multiplying congressional enemies
  • Most promising technology integrated gasification with integrated carbon capture and storage
    • nowhere near commercial use
  • Dangerous powers for an organization to have
    • through the use of regulations, EPA has controls on which industries can succeed or fail in the energy industry
    • EPA has the ability to bypass Congress
    • however the powers currently being used are done with forewarning


Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Shale Gas Analysis

These are notes from Shale Gas EIA Study

  • Review of Shale Gas and Shale Oil
  • Background
    • hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have greatly expanded the profitability of natural gas
    • started to grow in 1950s
    • mid 1970s partnership of DOE (Department of Energy) and GRI (Gas Research Institute)
      • grew technologies
    • large scale production in shale occurred with Mitchell Energy and Development Corporation
    • EIA and NEMS(National Energy Modeling System) presented Shale in mid 1990s, only a game changer for the past 5 years
  • Scope and Results
    • shale resources 
    • total 750 trillion cubic feet technically recoverable
    • 86 percent located in northeast and southwest and gulf coast
    • 23.9 billion barrels onshore in lower 48 states
    • Major areas onshore current development
      • Monterey, Santa Maria, San Joaquin Basin, Bakken and Eagle Ford
  • Methodology
    • INTEK shale report made from public company data and commercial databases
    • Issues and Concerns
      • gas and oil wells for shale are new and untested for long term production
      • production located to sweet spots of highest production
      • shale plays are very large only portions have been tested
    • Can have more production with technical advances and untested methods
    • Resource estimation still evolving

The Process of Hydraulic Fracturing

Notes from Hydraulic Fracturing Process

  • Hydraulic Fracturing
    • produces fractures in rock formations to stimulate flow of natural gas or oil
    • increases volumes that can be recovered
  • Process
    • pump large quantities of fluids at high pressure down a wellbore into target rock formation
    • commonly consists of
      • water
      • proppant (sand, ceramic pellets)
      • chemical additives 
  • Use
    • internal pressure of rock formation causes fluid to return to surface through wellbore called flowback
    • contains injected chemicals and other natural minerals, stored on site
    • many times injected underground for disposal
  • Used many times for "Unconventional" gas production
    • relatively new technology
    • Shale Gas extraction
      • Shale rock formations important source
      • present in many locations in the united states
    • Tight Sands
      • gas bearing fine grained sandstones or carbonates
      • hydraulic fracturing is a required process here

Natural Gas Notes

Notes from Natural Gas Report
  • Natural Gas Implementation
    • truck stops require restyled fuel pumps
    • ports will send new tankers
  • Oil and Natural gas on the rise reported by US EIA energy information administration
    • potential boom, growth outstrips demand
    • Texas to Pennsylvania
  • Natural gas for fuel rise 12 percent per year through 2040
  • LNG(Liquified Natural Gas)
    • 40 percent below price of diesel for next 3 decades
  • EIA projects predict rise from less than 1 percent of energy used in transport to 4% by 2040
    • not for average drivers only truckers
    • infrastructure is limiting factor as well as amount to put in vehicle
  • Industrial Renewal
    • manufacturing output increases 2 percent per year over 3 decades
    • Petrochemical companies such as Dow, Formosa Plastics, Shell, Chevron
      • plans to build, reopen or expand NA production
    • EIA's outlook is fairly positive until 2025 where other nations development produces more efficient facilities
  • Export Battle
    • rapid US move into natural gas
    • 1.6 trillion cubic feet by 2027
    • exporting by ship requires
      • super chill of gas at liquefacation plants, shrink to 1/600th size
      • insulate tankers
      • costs billions of dollars
    • proposed 9 LNG export projects
    • potential to export in solid form instead of liquid
  • No revolution
    • not projected to unseat oil, or displace coal for electricity
    • expected to share 30% natural gas by 2040
    • reduction in carbon emissions
    • EIA projection not in line with pure sustainability, little uptick in electric vehicles, and clean renewables

Shale Oil Notes


Notes from Shale Oil Report
  • Shale Gas
    • increase the supply of fossil fuels
    • cut demand from China's economic growth
  • Extraction
    • horizontal drilling
    • hydraulic fracturing
    • Half a million barrels of il a day flowing from bakken field
    • Belfer Center Report Oil the Next Revolution
      • shale oil could provide 6 million barrels a day by 2020
      • US imports 11 million barrels a day in 2011
      • can be near energy independence
  • Economically puts pressure on global oil prices
  • United States have only experienced first stage of low natural gas prices
    • major stimulus if oil prices reduce
    • greater range of options in dealing with foreign states
    • European advantages as well
  • Political drawbacks
    • If US no longer has dependence to oil in Gulf, Europe has reduced security
    • developing natural gas transportation for their own security
  • China
    • potentially 36 trillion cubic meters of recoverable shale resources
  • Russia and Saudi Arabia reduction in power and economy destabilize markets in these countries

Intro to Smart Grid Table of Contents

These are notes taken for a class on an intro to the smart grid.
  1. Week One
    1. Shale Oil
    2. Natural Gas Nation
    3. Hydraulic Fracturing
    4. Shale Gas and Oil Analysis
    5. EPA Coal Plant Regulation
    6. Energy Water Nexus
  2. Week Two
    1. Solar Energy Technologies
    2. Wind Energy Technologies

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Paper - Sustainability Agenda


Sustainability Agenda

        What is the most important thing engineers can do to help realize a sustainable energy future? The most important role is for engineers to provide their services in different areas and professions. They should spread their influence through the sectors of politics and management in order to help companies and the rest of the nation realize what sustainability entails. Although spreading information allows for people to make informed rational decisions, what is more effective is when someone who already has that information is put in a position that can promote a sustainability agenda.

        First we must address the concept of rationality. Rational decisions involve complete knowledge of the situation and making a choice based on the most benefits and least disadvantages. One of the most common obstacles to this is simply that the general population on average isn’t informed about topics and issues, in this case sustainability. There are multiple ways to approach this. The first way is best handled by educators, which is to teach the subject. This is the most direct way to address the problem which is to directly tell people about it and help them learn about the subject. This is a huge role and vital to the sustainability cause however, it is not the primary role of the engineer. They’re not put in a position where they can influence change by teaching the next generation, but they can educate their coworkers and other members in the workplace.

        Currently there are restrictions built into the social structure of the workplace. In general, most engineers do not get to make high level decisions. Level refers to the level of design that the engineer is operating at. Low level design is where the majority of engineers work, which is on a small component of the overall project, for example managing tcp/ip or udp connections in computer networking. An upper level design for the same project would be something like working on the application skype and detailing how it groups multiple people into one phone call. This would be an upper level design specification or project. More computer engineers are required for the low level design and maintenance of the program, and fewer are needed for the upper level decisions. Those high level decisions are generally reserved for the more experienced employees in the field.

        However, since sustainability is a recent concern, the experienced employee’s in the workplace don’t have the same focus in their education on these kind of ethical and long term concerns. Thats why it’s important for newcomers to all fields of engineers to be more vocal about sustainability. In the workplace, there are often forums and associations where engineers can talk and share concerns about a project. Normally this involves meeting tight constraints on time to market, or on fulfilling design specifications. However, it’s important for sustainability to become worked into the main components in the design process rather than as an afterthought. New engineers must have the courage to try and promote sustainability to management and higher level engineers who can influence policy on those levels.

        The other way is simply to be in those positions with a modern engineering background. Engineers who have been trained to think in terms of sustainability have to take an active role to control those upper level decisions that are usually reserved for senior members and management. This is simply a matter of time as engineers progresses in their career, they are able to gain more influence over projects as well as climb up the corporate ladder. The reason this is a necessary step beyond simply trying to inform upper management is because of an issue pointed out in The Ethics of Sustainable Resources by Donald Scherer. The current management is already set in their ways. They are already in a high position and often wealthy, so they are buffered from economic shocks and will be among the last people to feel the effects of the sustainable energy crisis because they can buy their way out of issues. This means that the main way to make your voice heard, is to put yourself in a position of power. This allows for the company to head in a sustainable direction because you have the training and access to information to make good rational decisions about the subject of sustainability.

        Another area where engineers need to make their voice heard is in the political sphere. Most politicians aren’t qualified to speak on scientific and mathematical matters because their background did not include that training, since they mostly consist of political science or law majors. Engineers on the other hand have the training and judgement to analyze scientific and mathematical data which is necessary to properly discuss sustainability issues.

        Luegehnbiehl in his article on Ethical Principles for Engineers in a Global Environment lays out foundational principles of engineering ethics which give us reasons why it is necessary for engineers to put themselves on the political field. The principle of engineering competence say that engineers should strive to carry out work that they are capable of. In this case it is dangerous to let those with a pretense of knowledge rather than formal training make decisions about a subject they aren’t qualified to debate about. This means that we need some engineers to extend themselves beyond their own fields in order to exert their influence on different sectors in society to properly promote a sustainability agenda.

Paper - Ethical Motivation for Sustainability


Ethical Motivation for Sustainability


        The engineering profession holds a large amount of responsibility to promote sustainability because of both the knowledge and skills engineers have. Engineering transforms our raw materials into usable products, which means that it’s responsible for consuming the vast majority of our resources. Engineers are some of the few people aware of what goes on in the process of manufacturing, and their possible consequences. Therefore that knowledge binds them by duty to be responsible for both the direct and indirect consequences of their actions.

        Why should engineers care about sustainability? Here we have to establish the ideas of justice and distribution. If we care only about the present, there isn’t really any reason for engineers to concern themselves about sustainability since there are enough resources right now to be distributed among humanity to support enterprise and construction. However, this will not always be the case. Sustainability means that the rate at which we use resources is less than the rate that resource replenishes itself. Since we are using resources in an unsustainable way through the use of fossil fuels, we are facing a crisis where our civilization will eventually run out of usable resources. Estimates show that this will be sooner rather than later. This means that we have to worry about distribution of resources in a temporal way in order to preserve intergenerational justice.


        Intergenerational justice is the idea that we have an obligation to preserve the livelihood of future generations, which is an extension of the golden rule. The golden rule of ethics is the idea that we should treat others the same way that we would want to be treated ourselves, and it is found in every society on earth in one form or another. Intergenerational justice applies this not only to the people who live right now but the people who will live. If our generation uses up so many resources that it impinges on the ability for future generations to survive it would be unethical and a violation of the golden rule. A journal article Sustainability and Intergenerational Justice by Brian Barry goes over the specifics of intergenerational justice. Intergenerational justice assumes that we want progress for humanity as a whole. If we reverted to living like cavemen, sure we would solve the sustainability crisis, but it would not be just. Justice involves ensuring that quality of life of future generations is either equal or better than it is now. This is why we have to examine the engineering profession that create products and services since those items often increase quality of life.


        What role does the engineer serve in society? Alastair Gunn in his Integrity and the Ethical Responsibilities of Engineers notes that engineering is a unique profession with its own specialized concerns. Engineering projects are expected to be 100% successful, something that is not generally expected from a profession. For example, we expect that once a bridge is built it will stand and not fail. Engineers are unique in that they deal with the concerns of a large body of users, rather than singular interactions. An example of this is that a doctor visibly meets with their patients and interacts with them. On the other hand an engineer who works on a project is usually only in charge of a small aspect of it, and interacts with the user indirectly after the product has been assembled, purchased, and then used. This means that there are many layers of separation between the engineer and his end customer, which makes it difficult to see what responsibilities engineers have to society and their customers. However, the engineer must be able to live up to the expectation of 100% success with their projects, as it can often lead to disaster such as in the example case of a faulty bridge.


        So even though a single engineer can only control a particular aspect of a project, it is their role in society to make sure that projects are as successful as possible. Success in this case must adhere to the ideas of intergenerational justice in order to remain ethical because of the impact engineering has on future generations. Thus in order to live up to the role in society that is expected of them engineers must promote sustainable policies and practices.

Paper - Obstacles of Sustainability


Obstacles of Sustainability

The greatest obstacle to obtaining a sustainable energy future lies in the the organizational structure of our society in both a social and economic sense. It is currently difficult to promote new thought into our societal systems because large companies have become so established on a global scale. The central issues in design and development involve design constraints and time to market. Companies rarely take into account the long term environmental effects of their actions, which needs to become part of the normal operations of more companies. In addition, sustainability is an investment into the future, which contrasts with the in the present mindset of a market economy.


The first obstacle we need to address is the inflexibility of a market economy. In theory the free market allows for everyone to compete without governmental restrictions. This allows for products and services to freely compete letting the best service win out.  Although this seems like a system that gives everyone a fair chance at success, this isn’t always the case. The market economy is fair when a technology is in development, however it becomes inflexible once technologies have been established. Once a company becomes established, it becomes very difficult for newcomers to break into that market. 


The issues stems from capital. Older companies have more money and resources to do further research and development for their product. This means that their product will likely be better suited for its end result than a new company which limits change. Another benefit of having extra capital is that it gives the company the option to buy up smaller companies in order to reduce competition. Examples of companies that were able to achieve this kind of domination in a market are the companies Microsoft and Bell, both of which used to hold an almost complete monopoly in their respective markets. Although now this dominance has been somewhat broken, it took the intervention of the government to reduce the power of Bell Labs, and drastically different design goals to allow companies like Apple, or heavy utilization of open source products like Linux to compete with Microsoft.

This concept comes from the Theory of Innovation which states that a social system is made up of five different kinds of people: the innovators, the early adopters, the early majority, the late majority, and the laggards. In the field of sustainable energy sources for energy generation already exist with  the coal and petroleum industries, which puts us in a social system where people are mostly made of the late majority. The late majority are people who are comfortable and accustomed with existing products. Because they are already comfortable with the situation, they are resistant to change, and this includes not only the fossil fuel companies, but also their customers which includes the vast majority of the entire population. Most people already use electricity and gas in order to live in their homes and drive around for work or leisure. This means that sustainable energy, is in that difficult stage where the market is normally unfriendly towards it as well as having to deal with competition from large already established industries.

In order to make sustainable energy viable in the market, there has to be some kind of incentive socially and economically. The social motivation is thankfully already there, and simply needs time and effort to grow. Forms of media ranging from presentations by presidents, to books such as the post carbon reader series serve to inform the public that we are in an energy crisis and that there is a need for alternative sustainable energy sources. Heinberg’s article What is Sustainability in the post carbon reader gives us a set of axioms explaining why sustainability is necessary. His first axiom is that “Any society that continues to use critical resources unsustainably will collapse.” This points out the fact that unsustainable practices, even if you are for some reason skeptical of the effects of global warming, will still result in the loss of resources, and the potential for societal collapse because of our limited resources.

More scientific articles such as Smil’s Science, Energy, Ethics and Civilization show us the immediacy of these issues. We are already hitting the point where our consumption of resources is hitting Eath’s natural limit and can only last for about 1 or 2 more generations without change. So we know that social motivation for sustainability exists. However, why hasn’t this been effective in motivating action? The answer is twofold.

First we also need to worry about the economic aspect because in order for technologies to be implemented, someone must be able to make a profit from that technology. The issue is that since alternative energy restructures existing technology, and is still in development, the initial cost of most sustainable energy generation is much higher than conventional fossil fuel generation. A good example is electrical wind generation. Wind power has historically been so cost inefficient that generators have only been built during the years where the government gives out huge tax/rebate incentives. Whenever those incentives run out, construction immediately halts as it is no longer profitable. Although this is a more extreme case, sustainable energy has trouble becoming profitable.

Secondly, sustainability is a long term concern. In general people are concerned with their day to day activities, not what will occur 20+ years in the future, and even when we are, the scope of our concerns are usually limited to our immediate family, such as our children. Sustainability concerns the survival of humans as a race, rather than concerning the individual or their families. This means that the sheer scope of sustainability hinders most people from taking action because they are all too willing to place responsibility for that on someone else, and keep their concerns focused on their day to day lives. This is why even though there are some efforts already in place to address the social and economic problems inherent to sustainability  they still remain as the biggest challenge for the sustainability movement to overcome.

Friday, November 16, 2012

Notes - Conclusion Rational Thinking

The following are notes for Working Toward Sustainability Ethical Decision making in a Technological World.
  • Include awareness of cognitive limitations and biases
    • decisions ad infinitum not viable
    • improve decisions by consciously avoiding common faults/biases
  • Define system boundaries
    • figure out appropriate scope/scale of a decision
    • include both spatial and temporal effects, intergenerational effects
  • Identify important stocks and flows
    • think about rates of intake/outflow
    • when effects take place
    • be aware of full cause effect chain and timing
  • Identify feedback loops when possible
    • find out limitations of feedback loops
    • what mechanisms drive a loop
  • Increase information
    • educate all decision making bodies fully
  • Look at systems over events
    • figure out if an event was caused by a system or spontaneous events
    • if caused by system fix the system rather than focus on uncontrollable events

Notes - Strategies for Addressing Limits to Rationality

The following are notes for Working Toward Sustainability Ethical Decision making in a Technological World.
  • Addressing the limits to rationality
  • acknowledge our limits
    • actively seek information that promote sustainable behavior/complex issues in general
    • proactivity to understand more
    • receive further information with an open mind
Becoming Environmentally Informed
  • knowledge is the first step, finding academic literature
    • social, economic, and environmental dimensions
    • ecological footprint
      • measure of the environmental impact of a person's daily activities
      • environmental consumption i.e. transportation, home expenditure, food consumption
      • calculators have been devised to keep track of
        • sources of energy used
        • land, water resources
        • vary in detail but useful as rough guidelines
        • carbon footprint
          • amount of greenhouse gases produced
        • fails to account for differences in social groups as they are statistical averages
    • Paul Ehrlich's IPAT equation
      • (I) Ecological Impact
      • (P) Product of Population
      • (A) Affluence
      • (T) Technology
      • attempt to think systematically about how factors combine to affect processes and resources
      • overgeneralization
  • environment is tied to wealth, per capita resource used increases with affluence, wealthier nations have larger footprints than poor ones
    • link not always straightforward, some wealthier nations are greener than less wealthy ones
    • i.e. Europe's footprint is smaller than United States
Becoming Socially and Economically Informed
  • Integral measure of factors can't be measured by just environmental impacts
  • Fair Trade practices
    • products made by non exploitative practices
    • tries to ensure employees reap stable socioeconomic benefits
  • Sustainability involves balancing ecological, social, and economic factors and weighing the relative importance of one another
  • Intergenerational communities vs familial communities decision making
Systems Thinking
  • (CAS) Complex adaptive systems
    • systems that are rapidly changing, large and hard to model
    • vital to choose attention to vital information not just vivid
  • Most states include critical thinking as a core aspect of education
    • solve disconnect of memorization and understanding
    • in general the public's critical thinking skills is not at a high enough level to process information in long term ways
  • Synthesis
    • standard practice
      • Divide problems into smaller more manageable components and view them separately
      • education system reflects this, division of subjects i.e. arts, mathematics, sciences, etc
    • Long term decisions are often multi disciplinary
    • acknowledge that we have to sometimes view problems as a whole instead of breaking them down
  • Scale
    • think of the scale of consequences
      • effects globally
      • effects community
      • effects personally
  • Stocks and Flows
    • Recall from Georgescu-Roegen's distinction between stock resources and fund resources
      • stock resources - draws from a limited reserve
      • fund resources - near infinite, or self replenishing
    • stocks
      • immediate effects of an event
    • flows
      • consequences of events/effects of a stock
    • apply to global climate change
      • minimize greenhouse gas
        • gas emissions is the stock
        • side effects of global warming such as climate change is the flow
        • Must consider timeframe, there is delay between when gas emissions are released and when effects occur
        • consider additional actions such as heating cycle of earth, to figure out when heat gets capture from gas emission and held for longer than normal
  • Feedback loops
    • presence of feedback loops
    • negative feedback loops
      • systems tend towards equilibrium through loops that return the system to normality
    • positive feedback loops
      • systems grow uncontrollably
      • more likely to cause problems as it destabilizes equilibrium
      • catastrophe can occur when it hits a boundary or limiting condition
      • i.e. bacterial growth
        • unrestrained bacteria growth increases population of bacteria
        • bacteria consumes resources in the area
        • causes drain on resources, death of host area
  • Resilience
    • ability to respond to change
    • fail safes implemented
    • system archetypes
      • common patterns of loops/behavior of a system
      • helps to understand what fail safes will be effective

Notes - Obstacles to Making Good Decisions

The following are notes for Working Toward Sustainability Ethical Decision making in a Technological World.
  • each person makes many decisions a day
    • daily decisions are made without much attention/introspection
    • often governed by
      • habit
      • personality
      • previous experience
    • Big/special/new decisions require more thought
Rational Decision Making
  • i.e. choosing a product in grocery store
    • prioritization of decision making
      • habits usually stay habits
      • follow social conventions
    • Unconscious list of characteristics made for an item
      • pick based upon best characteristics for that list
      • list has multiple prioritization
        • i.e. based on price
  • Rational decision making
    • people make choices that maximize their interest/match their list
    • for groceries decision is simple, and out of habit
    • complicated long term decisions what to do?
      • First collect information
      • compare options
      • think about long term cost/benefit
      • risk/hazards
      • emotion, what do you care about?
    • issues
      • perfect information not available
      • long term cost/benefit not specifically known only estimated
    • How to deal with issues to remain rational?
      • probabilities give us a good idea of unknowns
      • modeling/prediction
      • however, this is not applicable to general public
    • field of engineering
      • many theories and books about decisions
      • multiple criteria
      • additional variables included, compare dissimilar components
      • sustainability added into the field
Limits of Rationality
  • lack of information is the clearest barrier
  • i.e. grocery shopping
    • we don't know where the food was grown
    • the wages of the workers creating the product
  • Available information misleading/not full situation
    • i.e. electric hand drier may save paper, but it also consumes electricity
  • In addition, people often aren't trained to process information fully rationally
    • usually in life, a good enough answer that may not be fully rational is acceptable
    • human perception is selective not comprehensive
      • we always filter and interpret, not look at big picture
      • often see what we expect to see based on prior experience
  • Memory is limited
    • we can only handle about 5-7 units of different information at the same time before forgetting
      • we can overcome this by grouping terms to increase the size of units
      • i.e. telephone numbers
  • Attitudes/biases
    • habits/previous information influence choices
  • Sheer mental capability
    • not everyone trains the mind to calculate options
  • bounded rationality
    • make decisions based on what we have available
    • simplify this using heuristics, rules of thumbs to approximate rationality
Cognitive Heuristics
  • Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky psychologists who helped clarify heuristics
  • Availability Heuristic
    • ability to use information stored in memory
    • when event is easily recalled, consider it in future
      • easiest choice to imagine or recall more likely to believe in occurrence
    • created biases
      • i.e. belief in jets crashing frequently because crashes are covered rather than successful flights
    • variety of applications in this heuristic
      • television ads in order to spread information
      • public service ads have direct effects on popularity of products
      • power of celebrity status to influence choices regardless of their actual ability
      • vivid memories recalled over potentially accurate more longwinded ones
    • difficulty with precautionary principle
      • we remember catastrophes over mundane success
      • difficulty with implementing nuclear power
  • Anchoring and Overconfidence
    • people tend to anchor to initial facts
    • first impression most important
    • causes difficulties in negotiations, hindering 
  • Problems with Probability
    • we see patterns inappropriately
    • i.e. flipping a coin
      • if we see 9 heads in a row
      • think we "are due for tails"
      • but this is imposing on the random chance of flipping the coin
    • same ideas with 100 year on average floods or forest fire chances
  • Uncertainty
    • people avoid probabilities and uncertainties
    • lean towards certainty, desire to have control
    • avoid circumstances where input is hopeless because uncertainty is great
    • public's confusion on climate
    • predictions technologically based are difficult because few are qualified
      • exaggerations/fear tactics used
        • people rarely act on fear?(questionable statement raised by book)
      • multiple biases overlap since biases may draw people in different directions
    • increase in scale of complexity does not help non experts
    • only logical information reinforced by experience often stays
      • i.e. cherry blossoms in japan changing time of bloom
  • Discounting the future
    • Economically beneficial decisions can have ecological downsides
    • short term benefits are easier to see over long term ones
    • politicians and corporations focus on next elections/quarterly goals
    • importance of extending timeframe people can see
    • change needs to be bottom up in terms of sustainability
  • Complexity
    • the more complicated the system, the less likely people will think about it
    • mental overload
    • tragedy of the commons
      • commonwealth where people over invest in their own wealth
      • causes depletion of shared wealth, collapse of system
    • difficulty of perspectives values and attitudes of different peoples in addition to the complexity of actual problems
  • How Barriers to Rationality Affect Decisions
    • biases make decision making difficult even if people are given more time
    • mental shortcuts such as availability heuristic override longer term decision making
    • lack of trust
      • some corporations promote biomass usages
      • green movements automatically distrust corporations dissuades some from using viable source
    • Heuristics we have now are more suited to small communities/neighborhoods
      • in history useful for finding food
      • building shelter
      • care for own young rather than community
    • Discomfort with uncertainty promotes non-action
    • Experts in fields frequently stopped by publics overreaction to miimal risks
      • nuclear plant meltdown
    • Emotional overturns can also affect rationality, in both a positive/negative way
      • i.e. issues with food pesticides effect on infants

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Notes - Making Ethical Decisions for a Sustainable Future: An Overview

The following are notes for Working Toward Sustainability Ethical Decision making in a Technological World.

Social Sustainability
  • The Golden Rule
    • We believe we have the right to have our basic needs met
    • extend this right to our neighbors, locally and globally, and to those in the future
  • The Rights of the Vulnerable
    • Care Ethics, obligates us to share responsibility for the welfare of the poor, weak, sick and disenfranchised
    • meets the needs of the present
    • environmental justice
  • The Distributional Principle
    • Ensuring that both advantages and disadvantages equitably distributed
    • fair processes for decision making
  • Chain of Obligation (Expanded Community)
    • distributional justice across temporal boundaries
    • prospects of future generations based on current behavior patterns
    • intergenerational justice for a fair distribution of resources
Ecological Sustainability
  • The Land Ethic
    • provides a basic guideline to judge morality
    • actions must preserve
      • basic integrity
      • stability
      • beauty 
      • of a community
    • land is not a resource but a community
  • The Rights of the Nonhuman World
    • addresses the rights of animals, how individual organisms are treaed
    • animal rights
    • can include plants, and geological formations
Economic Sustainability
  • The Polluter Pays Principle
    • ethical/legal principle ensuring cost of pollution is justly allocated
    • shifts burden to those causing pollution
  • Extended Producer Responsibility
    • EPR (Extended Producer Responsibility)
    • manufacturer's responsible for entire life cycle effect of their products
    • recycling required
  • The Beneficiary Compensates Principle
    • BCP (Beneficiary Compensates Principle)
    • compensate parties to those who ask to forgo development
    • international community pays
  • Full-Cost Accounting
    • objective is to ensure all social and environmental costs of a product or process are identified
    • costs distributed after identification
Integrating the Dimensions of Sustainability
  • The Precautionary and Reversibility Principles
    • Where there is scientific uncertainty regarding technology or activity being implemented
    • pre-emptive action to avert potential threats
      • health
      • environment
    • Reversibility principle
      • ensure that ability to reverse consequences is built into the technology
  • Transparency
    • Good Governance is essential so force nongovernmental organizations to do greater documentation
    • elected officials stand behind campaign promises
    • consequences and components of technology made public

Notes - The Rationale for Sustainability

The following are notes for Working Toward Sustainability Ethical Decision making in a Technological World.

  • 70 documented definitions of sustainable development
Sustainability Interlude
  • Basic idea is to consume less than you produce
    • i.e. if you get interest of 100,000 dollars a year, only use that $100,000 that year, instead of dipping into savings
  • To apply this we go to a larger scale, where we have to allocate resources for the entire globe
    • how to distribute fairly
    • predicting the changing production and consumption
A Response to Crisis
  • Crisis of development
    • Proportion of those in poverty at about 20%
    • World is suffering from environmental crises and lack of resources, stressing the lower income more
  • 1983 U.N. convened World Commission on Environment and Development
    • later called Brundtland commission
    • address sustainability, provide reports on condition of globe
    • goals
      • basic needs of all humans should be met, poverty eliminated
      • limits placed on development because nature is finite
    • moral responsibility to future generations

Monday, November 12, 2012

Notes - Contemporary Sustainability Based Frameworks

The natural step

  • Developed by Karl Henrik Robert
  • Eliminate our contribution to
    • the progressive build up of substances extracted from the Earth's crust
    • the progressive build up of chemicals and compounds
    • degradation of natural processes
    • conditions that undermine people's capacity to meet their basic human needs
  • Progression Levels
    • 1 policy for year by year reductions in emissions
    • 2 increase ratio of recycled to raw materials
    • 3 maximize resource efficiency reduce nonrenewable contributions
    • 4 Introduce LCA(Life Cycle Assessment) analysis to provide detailed understanding of impacts
    • 5 set limits on extraction and land use
The Hannover Principles
  • supposed to serve as a how to for ecological design
  • defines sustainable design
  • Principles
    • Insist on the rights of human and nature to coexist
    • Recognize interdependence
    • Respect relationships between spirit and matter
    • Accept responsibilities for consequences of design
    • Create safe objects of long-term value
    • Eliminate the concept of waste
    • Rely on natural energy flows
    • Understand the limitations of design
    • Seek constant improvement by the sharing of knowledge
Corporate Social Responsibility
  • Milton Friedman said we undermine free enterprise if companies think about anything other than money
  • Long term responsibilities need to be assigned, Tyco, Enron, Exxon, etc.
  • CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility)
    • Intel stepping up in education field
    • Standard Chartered, UK bank global initiative to provide eye care, and micro finance loans
    • Xerox promote friendly paper use
    • can accrue benefits financially for company
      • better brand identity
      • lower levels of regulation
      • reduced scrutiny
      • gain government licenses for operation
  • Policies
    • Adoption of internal controls reform
    • commitment to diversity
    • management teams view employees as assets
    • high performance workplaces, employees involved in decision making
    • adoption of operating policies above regulations
    • greater resource productivity
    • taking responsibility for production phases
  • GRI(Global reporting initiative)
    • opening up reports to world about organizational performance
  • Some accused of greenwashing, as a fake publicity movement

Working Toward Sustainability ToC

Table of Contents

The following is a table of contents for Working Toward Sustainability Ethical Decision making in a Technological World.

  1. A Context for Sustainability
    1. The Rationale for Sustainability
  2. The Technology Challenge
  3. Introduction to Ethical Concepts
  4. Social Dimensions of Sustainability Ethics
  5. Environmental Dimensions of Sustainability Ethics
  6. Economic Dimensions of Sustainability Ethics
  7. Integrating the Three Legs of Sustainability
  8. Improving our Thinking about Sustainability
    1. Obstacles to Making Good Decisions
    2. Strategies for Addressing the Limits to Rationality
    3. Conclusion
  9. The Process of Changing Behavior
  10. Creating Change with Groups
  11. Applying an Ethic of Sustainability
    1. Making Ethical Decisions for a Sustainable Future: An Overview
    2. Contemporary Sustainability-Based Frameworks
    3. Putting it all Together
    4. A Final Critique

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Paper - Sustainability Beta Test 2012



Sustainability Beta Test

Chris Luk

Abstract
<in progress>

Introduction

Y2K, missing days in Mayan calendars, the Large Hadron Collider causing black holes, these are just a few of the recent end of the world crises the media has publicized. Its been a recent trend in our culture, to be concerned with the end of the world and so far, we have passed over such events with little trouble. However, our world is still threatened, though in a less dramatic fashion.


Issues and Concerns

The crisis we face is one of energy, of production, of sustainability. Sustainability is defined as resistance to degradation, and the ability to endure and in this case, we are concerned with the continuation of our civilization. If the world follows the model of development that the United States has done, the world will simply collapse. We have already passed the point where our consumption exceeds our production of resources so the resources we have now will only diminish. In the article The Bottleneck Wilson states, “For every person in the world to reach present U.S. levels of consumption with existing technology would require four more Earths”(Wilson 84).  Although the amount of resources and rate of consumption is in question, all studies agree that we will use up the Earth’s resources sometime in the near future, and that change is necessary. Vaclav Smil, a professor at Penn State, helps to drive home the point of the urgency of the situation by noting  that the United States currently uses up about 27% of the world’s current energy production. How much more of a problem would this be if China, a country with more than 4 times the population of the US consumes the same amount?


These are the issues our generation faces, changes have to happen and soon, with engineers leading the charge. Engineers as a profession, are responsible for increasing the quality of life enjoyed by the rest of the population, however this also makes them responsible for the drastic increases in energy consumption. Even though they strive for efficiency, many times this does not line up with the keeping consumption lower than our production of resources. William Stanley Jevons famously stated, “It is wholly a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to a diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth”(Jevons)(Smil). As efficiency increases, we often find ways to consume even more resources.


Smil p.711


Viewpoint of the Engineer

So now that we are aware of the causes and problems, we must address the matter of responsibilities and roles. The profession to address is that of the engineer. Engineering as a discipline, is responsible for shaping the material construction and production of our entire society, and because of that it is the field of study that consumes more raw materials and resources than any other discipline. However, we can't simply ask that engineers to stop or lower consumption. As Alastair S. Gunn noted, the duties of an engineer are many and complicated. The public expect both reliability and progress out of engineers. Every engineering project is supposed to be 100% functional, failure is not considered acceptable. In addition, we assume that some radical new product will come to increase our quality of life with more and more rapid turnover. The new generation is far less patient than previous ones when it comes to satisfying wants. Communication, shopping, and luxuries are available on the spot. Take for example the cellphone. We can make long distance calls now, anytime anywhere, but it wasn't so long ago that the majority of citizens needed to go home to their main phone line, and even have delayed calls where it took a significant amount of time to transfer the signal from one end of the globe to another. This has forced engineers to focus their work and concerns towards functionality, profitability, and time to market rather than the potential ethical and global impacts their work could have.

Neglecting to realize the difficulties and addressing the problems in the workplace for engineers can end in disaster. Tragedies such as the destruction of the space shuttle Challenger where lives were lost by simple calculation errors, remind us of the impact and responsibilities of an engineer. The public expects engineers to speak up whenever they are capable of spotting an error, but at the same time doesn’t realize the cost of such decisions. Although it may seem like a simple thing to speak up about an error or a problem, in the workplace where speaking against a superior can cost you your job, from a personal perspective the question may not be so clear. Recognizing that such an event can occur requires that engineers act with a sense of integrity, wholeness in personality and talent that must be part of the curricula for engineers, as well as built into the structure of the workplace to allow for flexibility of thought. By integrity we mean that the education and personality of the engineer must be high enough to both recognize when mistakes occur, and be willing to put their livelihood on the line to do what is correct from a moral or ethical perspective.

Restructuring our Perspective

So we want to figure out how to allow engineers to bring up the question of sustainability. In a capitalist economy, where the market decides what succeeds and what fails, the initial investment towards a sustainable future is a daunting one. Almost all current technologies in renewable energy sources, or low consumption construction techniques require a large initial investment that returns in value far in the future. For example, building an array of solar panels, or a wind farm has a far later return on investment than a coal power plant. This means that in an immediate sense, there isn’t a short term economic drive to move towards sustainability. So even if an engineer can recognize the errors of ignoring sustainability and production of products, he can’t act on that knowledge. However, like the engineers who worked on the Challenger we can’t simply ignore the necessity of reducing our consumption. The world is at stake here, and the only ones who can start the process to fix this problem is the profession that creates the material products and services provided to the world.

Thus we need to provide both economical and ethical motivation for sustainability. First we must concern ourselves with survival as a species. This is actually a harder task than it sounds. Notice that sustainability is an issue that displaced both spatially and temporally from our daily lives. For example, if you're old enough that you will die before the resources run out, why does it concern you? Why are we concerned about the species as a whole over our own current well being? To make this challenge even more difficult, we have to realize that sustainability is not an item of value we can pass down. If you gain wealth, you can pass down your material possessions to your progeny. If you are knowledgeable, you can prepare your children for the world to come. Sustainability is not something you can directly hand over to your own children, rather its something a generation hands off to the next generation and we must prioritize that by realizing the global interconnection between people in the world.


Globalization and Restructuring

Thanks to the internet and communication technology, we’re already well on our way to realizing that thinking globally as a species is only a matter of time. In the meantime, we must  take a page out of the development process for computer applications and run a beta test for sustainability. Engineers must look to restructure existing architectures, to make things not only more efficient, but consume less resources as a whole, instead of focusing on creating brand new products. In particular, electricity generation must move off the dependency on non-sustainable fossil fuels, and all stages of production from the construction of workspaces, through production, to the usage of product must consume less energy, not just be more efficient than it is now. We have to reverse the impact and allow for our production and consumption of resources to stabilize.

To enact this change engineers must be ethically driven simply through a solidity of character, in integrity, to care about their fellow humans and prioritize communal thinking. In the future this must be incorporated into the education of engineers, but for now it is the responsibility of this generation to realize the urgency, and aim to restructure current methodologies with sustainable energy techniques and standards in mind. In order for this to happen people in industry must more solidly attach themselves to their companies and think more about making the company succeed and grow in the long term as opposed to personal benefit as restructuring rarely results in immediate monetary benefits. Management must follow suit from the engineer’s lead and reward long term thinking and goals over short term ones by promoting loyalty towards the company. 

General Education and Rational Thought

<in progress>

Conclusion

To do so we must expand upon the role of education. First information must be spread about the urgency of the situation. Secondly, we have to bring greater standardization to the field of sustainable energy. Standardization is what drives both efficient and quick changes in a field. For example, lets take one of the fastest changing fields in industry, computer science. In computer science, even though there are many different higher level programming languages, the way in which they operate is relatively similar. You tell the computer a set of instructions, and it translates it to machine code and executes. The way that you structure your instructions, though syntactically different, often uses the same formats, such as the heavy emphasis on recursion methods. This applies on to sustainable energy because right now, the way in which it is taught at a university varies, and the way in which calculations are done in the filed varies greatly because its a new field. This makes it difficult for professions to talk about sustainability in the same way, since they all learned different things and work with different tools.

Thirdly, educators must work more closely with private industry so that a future in a company can be secured. If students are excited for and have a job security in a particular company, the motivation to benefit the company in a long term way is already there. Increased job security means more discussion can occur about policy and company goals without fear of reprisal. Having a more comfortable working environment, with a unified goals allows policy changes and organizational restructuring to happen which allows for a sustainable energy initiatives to succeed in the company. If these goals can be achieved we would have an appropriate economic and social structure to allow for change, and the ethical incentive through globalization and upbringing to care for the propagation of our species to give us a sustainable future.


Bibliography

Smil, V. 2010. Science, Energy, Ethics, and Civilization.
Visions of Discovery: New Light on Physics, Cosmology, and Consciousness, R.Y. Chiao et al. eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 709-729.
Gunn, Alastair S. "Integrity and the Ethical Responsibilities of Engineers."
Philosophy and Engineering: An Emerging Agenda. Dordrecht: Springer, 2010. 125-33. Print.
Jevons, William Stanley. The Coal Question. [S.l.]: Macmillan, 1906. Print.
Wilson, Edward O. The Future of Life. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2002. Print.